Wondering about the sudden change of color in the icon? Guess the title explains it.

Maybe I’m just forecasting at a really bad time.

Trump’s tariffs and policies, AI development etc. I have witnessed Black Swan events in a really short span of time: Trump’s tariffs drastically affected Brent crude oil prices. DeepSeek made AI open source.

Is there possibly a pattern to black swan events?

Some starting points to get started with this perhaps:

• Tassim Taleb’s book?
• Study Historical events? Some early signals. Why was this missed?
• Normal assumptions? Maybe change thinking to fat-tailed?
• Learn Extreme Value Analysis - but I have seen civil engineers learn this. Might be a valuable toolkit.

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