21 February 2025
Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. At the center of attention is President Paul Biya, who has held power since 1982 and will be 92 years old by the time the election takes place.
I looked up the actuarial tables to have an idea of the life expectancy in Cameroon and I was able to find the 2019 data. According to the 2019 data, people aged 85+ have a life expectancy of 4 more years or so. Paul Biya is aged 92. Given Biya's access to top-tier healthcare, the likelihood of his passing before the election is low to moderate. However, persistent rumors about his health cannot be ignored.
Should Biya be unable to run, the opposition might find a stronger footing. Yet, uniting against the long-standing dominance of the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) remains a significant challenge. Efforts are underway to consolidate support, particularly around Maurice Kamto, to present a formidable challenge.
Key Opposition Figures:
Recent polls suggest a potential shift in voter sentiment:
A poll conducted by English Cameroon for a United Cameroon, sampling 702 participants, projected MRC leader Maurice Kamto to win the next presidential election with 55.74%. He is followed by PCRN’s Cabral Libii at 17.98%, incumbent Paul Biya at 10.41%, Akere Muna at 3.48%, and independent candidate Dr. Christopher Fomunyoh at 2.6%.
Recently, President Biya secured approval from lawmakers to delay parliamentary and local elections until 2026. Opposition parties express concern that this move could hinder their efforts in the upcoming presidential race.
I am currently leaning 60% towards Paul Biya winning the election.
Update: Over time I have updated to 80%.
My original rationale on GJ Open: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1951763