25 December 2024

This question was part of the GJ Open Forecasting website.

***What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 25 December 2024? Github***

The Federal Reserve's balance total assets stood at $7.6 trillion in January, but by September, they had declined to $7.1 trillion. In this blog, we will explore projections and potential trends to estimate the value of the Federal Reserve's total assets as of December 25, 2024. The declining trend is pretty evident in the plot below.

The forecasting buckets for this question as available on the website are as follows:

• Less than $6.1 trillion
• Between $6.1 trillion and $6.5 trillion, inclusive
• More than $6.5 trillion but less than $6.9 trillion
• Between $6.9 trillion and $7.3 trillion, inclusive
• More than $7.3 trillion but less than $7.7 trillion
• $7.7 trillion or more

My hunch after looking at the data is that the total assets will fall in either of the two buckets as highlighted above.

LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL:

For our first attempt, let’s try a simple linear regression model.