Russia and India Arms Deals - SIPRI Report 2024

This question was part of the GJ Open Forecasting website.

Will Russia be the largest supplier of arms to India from 2020 to 2024, according to SIPRI?

                                                                                                                                                             ***[Github](<https://github.com/SaicharanRitwik39/Forecasting/tree/main/SIPRI-IndiaRussiaArmsDeals>)***

For decades, Russia has been the dominant supplier of arms to India, forging a deep military relationship rooted in Cold War-era alliances and strategic interests. However, recent years have seen a significant shift in India's defense procurement strategy. As geopolitical tensions evolve, India has diversified its arms suppliers, balancing its longstanding ties with Moscow against the growing influence of Western and regional powers.

NOTE: All the data used in this blog has been sourced from official reports by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). For those interested in diving deeper into the data, this is the official website: SIPRI Publications

There are a plethora of factors to consider when addressing this question—geopolitical shifts, evolving defense strategies, and international relations. However, for the moment, if we focus solely on the numbers, the trend is unmistakable: Russia's share of India's total arms imports has been steadily declining. Some of the major contributors to this downward trend include:

India's Diversification Strategy: Over the past decade, India has actively sought to reduce its reliance on a single supplier. This diversification has opened doors for countries like France, Israel, and the United States to increase their share of arms exports to India.
Geopolitical Realignments: Shifts in global alliances and growing tensions between Russia and Western powers have influenced arms deals, as India treads carefully to maintain a balanced relationship with major global players.
Indigenous Defense Capabilities: India has ramped up efforts to boost its domestic defense manufacturing under initiatives like "Make in India." This move towards self-reliance in defense has also chipped away at foreign arms imports.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS:

	Russia	USA	France	Israel
2009-2013	Accounted for 27% of global arms exports. India received 38% of Russia’s total exports, making it the largest recipient of Russian arms.	Was a rising competitor but still had a relatively small share compared to Russia.	Not mentioned as a major supplier during this period.	Israel accounted for 6% of India’s arms imports.
2010-2014	Accounted for 27% of global exports, with India receiving 39% of these exports.	Increased its share of arms exports to India.	Starting to emerge as a potential competitor but still a minor player compared to Russia.	Israel remained a consistent supplier but behind Russia, USA, and France.
2011-2015	Held 25% of global arms exports, with 39% going to India. Russia's exports to India were significant, though some decline was beginning.	Increased its share further but remained smaller than Russia.	Further growth but still not a major competitor to Russia’s dominant market share.	Israel's share decreased slightly compared to earlier years.
2012-2016	Accounted for 23% of global arms exports, with 38% going to India. Russia’s share was declining slightly.	Continued its growth, becoming a more significant competitor.	France continued to increase its share of India’s arms imports.	Israel continued to supply arms but remained a secondary supplier.
2013-2017	Held 22% of global arms exports, with 35% of these going to India.	The USA increased to a 15% share, emerging as a serious competitor.	France’s share continued to rise, cutting into Russia’s dominance.	Israel accounted for 11% of India’s arms imports during this period.
2014-2018	Russia’s share declined further to 58% of India’s arms imports.	Continued steady growth in arms exports to India.	France reached a 9.8% share, posing a serious challenge to Russia’s dominance.	Israel accounted for 11%, still being a significant but secondary supplier.
2015-2019	Continued to lose share, falling to 36%.	USA reached 13%, establishing itself as a strong competitor.	Grew to 33%, almost equal to Russia, marking a major shift in India’s arms imports market.	Israel’s share stayed around 11%, showing steady contribution to India.
2016-2020	Russia accounted for 49% of India’s arms imports.	USA maintained a smaller role, behind France and Israel.	Became the second-largest supplier with a 709% increase in arms exports to India.	The third-largest supplier, with an 82% increase in arms deliveries to India.
2017-2021	Russia’s share decreased sharply to 28% of India’s imports.	USA accounted for 11% of India's arms imports.	Overtook Russia as the largest supplier with a 29% share.	Continued to supply around 11% of India's arms imports.
2018-2022	Retained a 45% share, showing that despite a decline, it remained a strong supplier.	USA held 11%, with slower growth.	Increased to 30%, continuing to challenge Russia’s position as the largest supplier.	Israel's share remained around 11%, showing a stable arms trade
2019-2023	Fell further to 36% of India’s imports.	USA remained at 13%.	Remained close to Russia with a 33% share, effectively competing for the top spot.	Israel's share likely remained steady at around 11%.

The following plot gives a nice idea of the trends of Russia vs the competitors at the second and third spots. Quite compelling to say they would intersect soon right? Let’s see…

Screenshot 2024-09-27 153626.png

A LINEAR FIT:

A linear fit of the possible trends and their possible points of intersections puts the chances of this happening in 2025. Of course a linear fit is not going to cut it just because of the sheer number of volatile factors. But it gives the indication that this shift is going to happen sometime soon.

FINAL CONCLUSION: