A collection of some apps/techniques I built to support and streamline my forecasting processes.
FRED Q2 2025 Challenge Streamlit App: https://fred-q2-2025.streamlit.app/
I built a Streamlit app for the FRED Q2 2025 Challenge that combines Monte Carlo Simulations and bootstrapping to generate probabilistic forecasts. Users can upload FRED data, set a forecast horizon, and customize parameters to visualize future value distributions.
Forecasting Calibration Table and a ‘GutCheck’ App:
I came up with this probability calibration table - partly inspired by the RANGE platform - to help translate intuition and gut feelings into explicit probability ranges. The goal is to develop a consistent, structured way to express uncertainty, especially when making forecasts or thinking through complex scenarios.
This app builds on that idea. You provide your rationale as input, and it returns a probability range based on the tone and framing of your reasoning. It’s an experimental tool, but one that reflects my attempt to bring more clarity and consistency to my forecasting process.
| Labels | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Remote | 0% - 5% | Extremely unlikely. |
| Highly Improbable | 5% - 15% | Very unlikely, but not impossible. |
| Improbable | 15% - 35% | Unlikely, but might happen. |
| Roughly Even Odds | 35% - 65% | Could go either way. |
| Probable | 65% - 80% | More likely than not. |
| Highly Probable | 80% - 95% | Very likely. |
| Nearly Certain | 95% - 100% | Almost sure to happen. |
Habitable Zone Calculator: I built this web app to calculate the habitable zone for exoplanets based on stellar luminosity, allowing users to assess whether a given planet lies within a potentially life-supporting region around its host star. The app was developed as part of a forecasting question on RFI:
“Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?”
The app received positive feedback from a professional forecaser on the RFI platform, who intended to use it for further modeling. App Link: https://hzcalc.streamlit.app/