14 September 2024

This question was part of the GJ Open Forecasting website.

***Before 5 November 2024, will daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz be below 25 for two consecutive days, according to the IMF?** Github*

Well another day and another question on transit calls 🤡. This time, we're looking at a slightly different case from the one I covered before (see Panama Canal). As you’ll soon realize, relying solely on data won't suffice for this one.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world's most strategically important choke points. (Source: Wikipedia)

As you might have guessed, the key factor to consider for this question is the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. However, for the moment, let’s focus solely on the numbers and data.

I downloaded the data, which was available from 2019 onward, and here's something interesting: historically, the number of transit calls has never dropped below 51 ! The average is around 93 transit calls, giving us a base rate of 0. However, one confusing aspect was in the description of the question itself. It stated:

"As of the launch of this question, PortWatch reported the lowest number of transit calls for a single day at 13 on 12 May 2022, though there were 107 on 11 May 2022 and 92 on 13 May 2022."

This seemed to contradict my findings. After seeking clarification from the admin, it turned out that the static file they were using hadn’t been updated.

A base rate of 0 and a mean of 93… seems like a solid case to confidently say "no" on this question, right? Well, that’s exactly what I forecasted. But there are a few reasons why things might not go as expected, and I can sum it up in one sentence:

       ***History has proven that logic and reason don’t always steer the course of events.***

Some possible reasons for this question to resolve as yes..

• A sudden shift in Iran’s political landscape, such as a regime change or escalated tensions with global powers, could destabilize the region. Such turmoil might result in sanctions, embargos, or military actions that restrict access to the strait.
• If a full-blown war erupts in the Middle East, it could severely disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflict in this region would likely lead to blockades or restrictions, drastically reducing transit calls.
• Increased attacks on commercial ships could make the strait a high-risk zone, causing shipping companies to reroute vessels to safer passages. Persistent threats or actual incidents could cripple the flow of goods through the area. For example: May 2019 Gulf of Oman incident.