(latest update as of 01/04/25)

Just an initial attempt at trying to give weights to various betting markets.

So I have been using Polymarket and Manifold to inform my forecasts for a while. And although I did not have much idea of how they operate, intuitively I was giving more importance to Polymarket odds than Manifold. Turns out this was actually the right thing to do. Manifold trade is not redeemable, so essentially it could be gamified. Regardless I wanted to know what would be the Mana to dollar conversion. This was the data I found:

Seems linear enough. The exact line’s equation would be:

                                                      Mana=120.49⋅USD−538.51 (insert linear fit code, used polyfit)

Polymarket on the other hand uses real money. So the credibility is higher anyways.

Could integrate more markets as I go along.

• Kalshi, I do not have access.
• Relative weights?? Compare volumes perhaps, number of traders?
• More markets?

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