28 March 2025

When I came across this question on GJ Open — “Will Donald Trump win a Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 or 2026?” — my gut reaction was clear:

HELL NO! 😄

But gut instincts aside, I wanted to dig deeper. So I decided to look at precedent and market signals to inform my judgment.

What History Tells Us: A Look at the Nobel Peace Prize and U.S. Presidents

I started by checking how often U.S. presidents have won the Nobel Peace Prize in the past. Here’s what I found:

• Theodore Roosevelt (1906): For mediating the end of the Russo-Japanese War.
• Woodrow Wilson (1919): For establishing the League of Nations after World War I.
• Jimmy Carter (2002): Long after his presidency, honored for decades of peacebuilding work.
• Barack Obama (2009): During his first year in office, for efforts to strengthen diplomacy and cooperation.

That’s 4 out of 45 presidents, or a historical base rate of around 8.8%. And of those, only three received it while in or near political office. So Trump has history working against him.

What the Markets Are Saying

Curious if any prediction markets were trading on this idea, I checked platforms like Polymarket and Manifold. Here’s what I found:

Polymarket: 12% probability, with over $1.5 million in volume.

Manifold (various timelines):

• Before 2025: 5%
• Before 2028: 8%
• Before 2030: 9%

Even the highest estimates which I’d argue are inflated don’t break 15%. These odds still seem high given historical context, international sentiment, and recent controversies.