Update: I've moved everything to a new home. You can find it here.

This space captures my evolving journey in forecasting - from the methods I use and the tools I’ve built, to candid reflections on what worked, what didn’t, and what I’ve learned. The apps I’ve created reflect my current understanding and attempt to mitigate the challenges I encounter. Along the way, I’ve been diving deep into forecasting literature and related videos to sharpen my skills and improve the quality of my approaches.

This is as much a log of growth as it is a personal toolkit. It isn’t SEO-optimized, aggressively marketed, or polished to perfection. It just exists - like a quiet corner of the internet where I tinker, reflect, and try to get slightly better at thinking clearly about the future. Think of it as an online diary, the kind that evolves with me.

Stay a while. Forecasting is optional, but curiosity is not.


2025 Articles

2024 Articles

Post Mortems

Some Useful Tools I Built

Rank Estimation on GJ Open

Initial Ramblings, Polished Versions likely end of ‘25:

Game Theory and Forecasting

Weighing Betting Markets

Black Swan Events

Miscellaneous Questions

Modeling Engagement Dynamics on Forecasting Platforms Using a Compartmental Approach